Samsung Electronics is facing a challenging 2025 as it grapples with growing competition from Chinese chipmakers, the prospect of higher tariffs from the U.S. government, and domestic policy deadlock. While the company has maintained its lead in the semiconductor industry this year, it has yet to articulate a clear strategy to overcome future headwinds.
Analysts have cut their forecast for Samsung’s operating profit to 40.48 trillion won (about $30 billion) in 2025, down 36% from the previous forecast of 63.59 trillion won. To improve the situation, Samsung needs to make clear progress in artificial intelligence (AI) chips, especially high-bandwidth memory (HBM). At the same time, the company also needs policy support, such as the passage of the K-Chips Act to exempt research and development (R&D) workers from the 52-hour workweek limit.
One of the biggest challenges comes from Chinese rivals, especially ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), which is offering DRAM chips at prices nearly half that of Samsung’s. This has caused average DRAM prices in the market to fall more than 20% in November. TrendForce forecasts China’s DRAM output to increase by 25% next year, further putting pressure on prices.
While some analysts expect Samsung’s profit to rise from 35 trillion won this year to 40 trillion won next year, others are more pessimistic, predicting that profit could fall to just 24 trillion won. If Samsung fails to make progress in AI chips, the company could miss out on the opportunity to ride the wave of global growth in artificial intelligence.
Another risk is the possibility that the Trump administration will return to protectionist policies. New tariffs could push up the prices of Samsung’s memory chips, reducing competitiveness and hurting market demand for the company’s smartphones and PCs. This situation will further pressure Samsung’s semiconductor business.
The AI chip market is expected to continue to grow strongly next year, but Samsung has yet to demonstrate its technological edge over rivals such as SK Hynix. The supply of HBM3E chips to Nvidia, which was expected to be a major step forward, has also been delayed until next year.
Domestically, Samsung also faces policy challenges. The K-Chips Act, which aims to exempt R&D workers from working hour limits, has yet to be passed. This makes it harder for South Korea’s semiconductor industry to compete in the international market. Chipmakers believe that lifting the work hour limit will help improve technological capabilities, but opposition from opposition parties has brought the process to a standstill.
To overcome a difficult year, Samsung needs to quickly implement innovative and optimized strategies, while taking advantage of opportunities from the development of the global artificial intelligence industry.